Friday, February 29, 2008

More Reasons Spiralfrog and Qtrax Are In The Toilet


There are so many things wrong with the business model of Spiralfrog and Qtrax that you would think there isn't anything left that they could get wrong.

But there is.

Audio ads integrated with the music is the only way to make ad-supported downloaded music work for many reasons that I have explored in this blog.

However, the CEOs of Spiralfrog and Qtrax have written off this ad format:

  • Joe Mohen of Spiralfrog (from LA Times Bit Player blog): Mohen argued that the alternative -- sticking ads into the songs themselves or between songs in a playlist -- was a non-starter. "There is an almost pervasive lack of public acceptance for ads embedded in music," Mohen said. "Every single kid we interviewed said, `We won't use your service if you do that.'"
  • Allen Klepfisz of Qtrax (from Wired): "Qtrax will not have intrusive ads. The reality is that the illegal services have attracted enormous numbers of users. If we add speedbumps, people will return to those services. That's precisely what we don't want to do. We want to create a service that's pleasant to use, content-rich, with extensive biographies and reviews for lesser-known bands. Also users can buy related DVDs, T-shirts, ringtones, and so on. We intend on distinguishing ourselves as superior to the free unlicensed P2P services."
Mohen and Klepfisz lack the creativity and vision (and the technology) to understand how exciting, effective and acceptable audio ads dynamically inserted into the audio stream of downloaded music can be.

Another reason their services are in a toilet that will soon be flushed.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Rube Goldberg - Patron Saint of Recorded Music


Digital Music Forum East is going on now in NYC. Digital Music News wrote this about the keynote interview:

On Tuesday, Sony BMG president of Global Digital Business & US Sales Thomas Hesse outlined a strategy that mirrors Total Music. The concept focuses on pre-packaged, subscription-based content across various devices and PCs. "Subscription becomes access," Hesse said during a keynote interview at the Digital Music Forum in New York. "We are having conversations with major carriers, handset manufacturers ... everyone."

During the discussion, Hesse loosely outlined an architecture that would bundle music within devices, and also include access to paid, a-la-carte tracks.

Lovely, another overly complex solution from the recorded music industry to a simple problem.

The findings of a just released study by NPD group describe the problem and contain the solution:

...the amount of music that consumers acquired in the U.S. increased by 6 percent in 2007. A sharp increase in legal digital download revenues could not offset declines in CD sales, which resulted in a net 10 percent decline in music spending (from $44 to $40 per capita among Internet users). As a result the overall portion of music acquisition that consumers actually paid for fell to 42 percent in 2007 from 48 percent in 2006.

Simply stated people want recorded music but they don't want to pay for it.

Consumers aren't clamoring for "universal access" (doesn't a portable MP3 player already provide this?). They are screaming for free music.

There are other ways to provide free music but none better than ad-support.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Tuesday Tidbits


Persons Using Radio Down - According to the latest Arbitron report, PUR - like CD sales - continues its steady downward trend in all categories. Time previously spent with radio is going to other media, mostly to the Internet but also to recorded music.



iPod Sales Growth Slows - Also down are iPod sales growth and revenue. I don't think this means that portable MP3 player sales or use are hurting, only that Apple's dominance in this market is weakening. This is a good thing. (Chart from Silicon Alley Insider)



Another Worthless Report - Earlier this month Forrester published a report entitled The End Of The Music Industry As We Know It by James McQuivey. I can't afford to waste $279 on the report so I have to rely on third party coverage (of which I think Greg Sandoval of cnet did a good job).

Here are some of McQuivey's bogus conclusions:
  • Ad-supported music should stay "on the radio where it belongs". I don't even want to get started on this.

  • Sharing is vital, according to McQuivey, because it makes new music discovery easier, which the Web was supposed to help with but so far has tanked. Does he look at the data? After freinds (and radio depending on the demographic) the Internet is the most cited source for finding new music.

  • "The gold medal for 2007 (in music discovery) should have gone to Slacker," McQuivey wrote. Give me a break! Slacker radios were barely shipping in 2007. What about Pandora and the legions of music recommendation services?

Friday, February 22, 2008

Video of Free Music Panel at MIDEM

This is a highlight video of The Free Music Business panel at MIDEM in Cannes last month.

Overall I agree with most of what the panelists have to say. However, the undertone in their remarks is that ad-supported music isn't viable right now because the labels have unreasonable revenue expectations.

Sure, it would be great if the labels asked for less but I believe the real problem is that the current models are not capable of generating the high CPMs that Alan Klepfisz of Qtrax rightly recognizes are necessary.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Importance of TSL Measurement



Ad-supported internet music radio is a new digital medium. Ad-supported downloaded music is also a new digital medium.

An important difference between these two new media is that only ad-supported internet music radio monitors the critical measure of time spent listening:

AccuStream Research: Internet Music Radio and Track Plays Chart 4.8 Billion Listening Hours in 2007

SALINAS, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Music radio online (live streaming channels and individual track plays) generated 4.85 billion total listening hours in 2007, up 26.1% over 2006, according to a new research report by AccuStream iMedia Research.

The report, Net Music Radio 2007–2010: Listening Hour Analysis by Site and Brand, breaks out monthly and annual hourly-based usage, growth rates from 2003–2007, listening share by site and brand, plus forecasts through 2010.

Total listening hours averaged 404.2 million hours per month (excluding downloaded music), compared to a 320.5 million hour average in 2006, including leading music subscription services such as Napster, Yahoo Music and Rhapsody.

The report contains finalized ’07 revenue estimates for streaming audio and video advertising sold against usage.

The medium’s visibility with advertisers has improved, in part due to online commitments made by terrestrial brands such as Clear Channel and Citadel Broadcasting, but nevertheless remains concentrated, with the top ten sites capturing 90+% of total listening hours monthly.

Shoutcast (owned by AOL) remains the top platform/destination in the music radio segment, with 48.4% of total listening hours for the year, followed by Clear Channel Online, Yahoo Music, AOL Radio Networks and Pandora.

The two leading subscription services combined captured approximately 4% of listening hour share in 2007.

Internet Music Radio ad billings came in at $80 million in 2007 for audio ads, up 194% over the $26.9 million comparable in 2006. Adding another $12–$15 million generated through video ads placed inside music channel environments, the market was worth approximately $92 million in 2007.

A comparison of reach and revenue between terrestrial radio and online radio/music track plays suggests an online market with fully valued potential of approximately $525 million annually.

Based on billings of $92 million and 25% of inventory sold, the market achieved 17.5% maturity in 2007, and forecast to reach 26%–29% in 2008.

Clear Channel Online, with experienced cross platform sales personnel, has been among the most assertive brands allocating avails against listening time, with 6–8 minutes per listening hour dedicated to ad inventory.

AccuStream iMedia Research (http://www.accustreamresearch.com/) publishes research on Internet audio, video, advertising, streaming media subscriptions, UGV, download media and CDN telecom.

TSL to downloaded music on a computer or portable MP3 player can be measured. Track play data can be logged each time the player is synched to a computer. iTunes already does this. It would be trivial for Accustream or Arbitron to aggregate a sample through an online link.

TSL measurement is necessary to the success of ad-supported downloaded music. Advertisers will demand it. Like radio it will be the most important single measure of the medium's success.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Ad-Supported Music 1.0



The current buzz in ad-supported music comes from rumors that MySpace is starting an ad-supported music service.

There is a lot of commentary in the blogosphere about ad-supported music and most of it is wrong. Here is a tip - if you are reading an article that uses Spiralfrog as an example that ad-supported music is not working - then stop reading because the author doesn't understand ad-supported music. Spiralfrog is a test only of its flawed model, not of ad-supported music.

We are in the early stages of the evolution of advertising supported music. If they maintain their current approach to presenting advertising, all of the companies now in the field will become extinct. They will fail because their implementation is wrong, not because ad-supported music can't work.

The companies of Ad-Supported Music 2.0 or 3.0 will have learned that success requires monetizing the time spent listening to recorded music.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Tuesday Tidbits



TVT Records Shutting Down - From AllHipHop.com (via hypebot) comes news that TVT records is closing. TVT is a large independent label. This event will not have a big impact on the industry but it may be an early signal of the fate awaiting the weaker majors. I have said before that the collapse of a major record company is probably something that needs to happen before the industry gets really serious about ad-supported downloaded music.

Tween Tidbit - The LA Times published a good piece on music subscription services earlier this month. The article has a quote from former Yahoo music head David Goldberg that I want to point out because it relates to my More Reasons Tweens Are Ideal For Ad-Supported Music post from last week. "A big chunk of the music-buying public is teens, and it's hard to sell them a service that bills by credit card, Goldberg said".

MySpace Free Music Service - Apparently MySpace is going to offer an ad-supported music service. It is not known if the service will offer downloads or streaming. Many think it will be streaming music, and if so, I say big deal. How many sources are there for free streaming music? A bunch. And that is more than can make money at it.

Friday, February 15, 2008

More Reasons Tweens Are Ideal For Ad-Supported Music

Two new surveys lend credence to my earlier assertion that Tweens are Ideal Ad-Supported Music Demo.

The first survey, commissioned by Microsoft, explored teen attitudes on illegal downloading. One of the principal findings was that the more the teens knew about the law regarding illegal downloading, the more they thought it should be a punishable offense. Microsoft's conclusion from this finding, which is reasonable, is that educating teens about the illegality of sharing tracks on P2p networks will reduce their use.

Another finding is that, among teens who don't think illegal downloading should be punished, the #1 reason for using P2P is because they can't afford the music they want.

The second survey was just released by NPD. According to this survey; 70% of teens are using legal services to download music with iTunes being the most popular.

My conclusions from these surveys are:
  • Tweens want to get their music from legal (meaning OK with their parents and other institutions in their lives) and easy to use sources
  • A major barrier, however, is that they can't afford all the music they want.
An answer, of course, is advertising supported downloaded music. Combine ad-supported music with a free MP3 player and I believe you have a winning value proposition for the large tween music market.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

RCRD LBL Founder Interview


I am reprinting an interview that FMQB did with Peter Rojas. It sounds like the principal advertising opportunity is sponsored widgets. Nice, but this ad format doesn't begin to take advantage of the creative opportunities that are possible with ad-supported music.

Up Close: RCRD LBL Co-Founder And CEO Peter Rojas

While the record industry is constantly searching for new ways to distribute and monetize music, online blogs that focus on celebrities and music are becoming a more integral part of pop culture life each day. This is why Internet entrepreneur and Engadget co-founder Peter Rojas, along with Downtown Records co-founder and CEO Josh Deutsch, decided to start a company that integrates both of those worlds. In November, the duo launched RCRD LBL, an online, blog-driven label offering free, sponsor-supported MP3s from established and emerging artists across a variety of genres. Puma, Virgin America airlines and Nikon were among the first brands to sign on as sponsors, and imprints such as Dim Mak Records, Warp Records, Modular Records, Drowned In Sound, Turntable Lab and more have agreed to offer their wares on the network. As of today (2/14), even Moby is offering a free sampler of his upcoming album via RCRD LBL. “I love the fact that as the old/traditional infrastructure of the music business is breaking down it's being replaced by new and more compelling institutions like RCRD LBL,” wrote Moby on his Web site. “The vice-grip hegemony of the corporate labels and corporate radio stations is loosening every day, which can only be seen as a good thing for music and listeners.” Furthermore, every element of RCRD LBL, such as streaming radio, photos and tour dates, is offered as a sponsor-branded widget which can be embedded on other Web sites or on a user's desktop. This gives the sponsors a way to integrate themselves into the experience of using the site as RCRD LBL unleashes new music every day. To get a better understanding of how this new business model works, FMQB spoke to Peter Rojas about how the idea was borne.

How did you get the idea to do this?
I come out of the blog world. I started a bunch of pretty popular sites. I’m someone who was involved with music when I was younger, but by the time I graduated college in the late ’90s it didn’t seem like an industry that I really wanted to go into. I’d learned a lot of lessons about what made a successful blog, and it was really this idea of creating a site – a niche media site – where you try to connect with a very specific audience, and you try to do that by being very authentic or real with that audience. When I thought about what was wrong with the music industry, it seemed there was all this excitement and interest in music now, but it wasn’t being monetized through the selling of CDs or even digital downloads. It seemed like the real excitement, energy and passion was all taking place online in various forms, whether it was music blogs or social networks. I thought, “What if you could take a lot of these lessons I’ve learned from what makes a great blog, and apply that to the music industry?” I recognized that there is a lot of interesting overlap between what a label is really good at, which is identifying and cultivating talent, and what a music blog is really great at, which is identifying and sharing music from artists that the blogger is really excited about. I thought with the places where they overlap, you could create a really interesting business. You could create a site that gives away the music, just like a music blog does, but do it legally like a label does, and then monetize everything through advertising like a blog does. It all fit together nicely, and it seemed like one of those rare opportunities where you can align the interests of everyone involved. The artists that are participating are getting compensated and they get to build their audience. The fans get great music for free, and the brands that are partnering with us and supporting what we’re doing get a chance to be seen as actively being part of the solution to some of the problems that the music industry is having. It’s a win all around.


How exactly does the online community of RCRD LBL work?
We work with a network of labels. It’s a very curated experience right now. You don’t have to sign up to download or enjoy music from the site. We work with a network of about a dozen labels, like Warp, Modular, Dim Mak and Fools Gold. They give away their music, and we sign a lot of artists directly to the site. The whole idea is to create a place where people can go and can make it part of their daily media diet.


All the music on your site is DRM-free. Do you think DRM is a thing of the past? Was it part of the reason a lot of people downloaded music illegally in the first place?I think it was initially. Now the labels have gotten to the point where even if they take off the DRM, people have gotten so used to getting it for free that it’s going to be hard to turn that around. Think about how long it’s been since Napster came out – it’s been almost 10 years. There are kids who are starting college now who, ever since they’ve been interested in music, they’ve always been able to get it for free off the Internet. If you were nine-years-old when Napster started, you don’t even know a world where you have to pay for music. You certainly don’t know anyone your age that pays for music, and maybe you never even owned a CD. That’s the reality of it. That’s what the industry is up against. Patterns of consumption have changed dramatically over the past five to 10 years. Consumers are used to enjoying music in a different way now. It’s more of a social media experience than a retail experience. You go online and you have your blogs that you read. You’re sharing that music with your network of people. We decided to build something that was in tune with that, and that’s why the widgets are a really big part of what we do. It’s a way for us to brand the utility of the site and the experience of the site in a way that people can take the functionality with them and embed it on their site or put it on their desktop. So if you’re a fan of Warp Records, for example, you can take their widgets and embed them and share them with your audience. The Web is a distributive experience at heart, so you have to accommodate that. You really have to offer people something that is in tune with the way that they want to consume things.


What kind of sponsors have signed on and how can they extend their brand through RCRD LBL?
The widgets are a big part of that. The sponsors we have right now are Puma, Nikon, Virgin America, BMW and Nokia. We work primarily with blue chip lifestyle brands. We thought it was important to work with people that would partner with us and who were forward-thinking enough to really get what we’re doing, to recognize that it’s a slightly different model than just buying a bunch of banner ads. There’s a time and a place for that stuff too, but we wanted to take things deeper so we’re actually integrating the brands directly into the widgets. For Puma for example, we built a custom holiday mix for them and built a widget around that. That widget actually lived at Puma’s Web site and is available at our Web site, and we are doing a different “mix widget” every quarter to coincide with their seasonal campaign. With Virgin America, they’re branding and sponsoring the tour dates widget on the site. We’re also programming an in-flight entertainment channel for them. We’re doing interesting things that overlap between doing stuff online and also offering an offline component. This is the critical thing that I think is really important. We’re not trying to sell the music. It has to be good, otherwise people won’t pay attention. With most marketing related to music, like Coca-Cola sponsoring a Jay-Z video, you have to wonder as a brand: are you helping sell more cans of soda, or are you helping Jay-Z sell more CDs? With us there’s no conflict. It sounds kind of crass, but this is the reality of it. There’s more of a halo effect so to speak, because the music’s free and the sponsor is enabling the consumer to enjoy it. And for the sponsors there’s no conflict between: are you helping further your own brand, or are you helping an artist sell more CDs? All we care about is that we offer something that is really good and credible, and resonates with an audience. From a sponsor’s point-of-view, that’s what they want too. They want an audience that is engaged and passionate and enjoying something that really resonates deeply with them. The whole core of this is, as we shift from mass media to niche media, something that connects deeply with the smaller but more influential, taste making audience is actually more valuable to an advertiser or sponsor. For Puma and BMW and the other sponsors, it’s not about just throwing some banner ads on MySpace and hitting 200 million kids, it’s about hitting the right 200,000 kids. The people who are reading our site, that are downloading music from our site, that are signing up and creating accounts on the site, those are the people that are the early adopters when it comes to music and the most taste making when it comes to this stuff. Kids are so media savvy now that they can smell something that’s fake a mile away, and they’ll click once but they’ll never come back. I think what’s been great about our site is that people love what we’re doing. People that discover the site get it. They’re like, “Wow! These guys didn’t just throw up a bunch of name brands and big name artists.” We could have put the James Blunts of the world on this site and gone for that, but it was about going edgier and more emerging, and getting more credible with the taste making audience. I think that is what they’ve really responded to.


Do you envision major labels becoming a part of this?
We’ve been approached by a handful of major labels. I’m not going to say “no,” that I would never work with a major label, but it’s not critical to our business model. What is critical to our business model is that the artists we work with are good. I wouldn’t want to work with a major label and have them say, “Okay, we’re going to put out the next Paris Hilton single on your site.” That’s really not going to work for us. Obviously there are bands on major labels that are good, and if there was some sort of partnership we wouldn’t rule that out. But the labels that are part of the network – they’re labels that mean something. They’re brands that are speaking in and of themselves. When we tell people we have Warp Records as part of the network, it actually means something to people who know music. It’s a brand that keynotes something really powerful. The whole point of what we’re doing is that it’s more of a curatorial experience. The taste of the person who is turning you on to something is important. In fact, that’s why people read blogs in the first place, because they care about or are engaged by the perspective or taste of the person who’s writing it. That’s sort of the same thing here. That’s why we have a team of bloggers and we tell them, “Think of yourself as an A&R person, because that’s what you are. Your job is to go out there and find things that you like and share them with the rest of the world.” From an A&R person’s standpoint, what we’re doing is actually a dream come true, because every A&R person I’ve ever met tells me the same kind of story: “I had these five great bands. I pitched them and we couldn’t do a deal. My boss wouldn’t let me do a deal with them.” A major label needs to sell like 300,000 copies of a record to break even. But with us, we’re giving away the music. We can work with much smaller bands and do stuff just because we like a band. There’s no pressure to hit a certain threshold. The metrics are totally different.


And the bands make money through the sponsorships?
Yes. Obviously we want the bands to get a lot of people into their music, but there’s infinite capacity for us. The business scales in a way that’s really nice. The fundamentals of the business are completely different, and I think that’s the hardest part for people to get their heads around. We’re an Internet business first. We’re a record label translated for the Internet era. Some people think, “Oh, that means you just sell music on iTunes.” But if someone just wants to sell their music on iTunes, they don’t need us for that. You can do that directly. If a band is only interested in selling their music, then I would recommend that they don’t ever sign to a label and they just record their music and sell it through iTunes themselves. But we all know that music sales are going down across the board. Digital is up, but it’s not growing fast enough to close the gap. I think what we’re doing is a really great way for artists to do what they need to accomplish with their music, which is build an audience so that they can make some money but they can also grow their audience in ways that will help make it easier for them to monetize in other ways, like touring.


Do you think giving away music for free is the way things will have to happen in the future?
I get asked this question a lot, and I don’t know. If it were easy for me to predict the future, I definitely would be taking advantage of it in more ways than just RCRD LBL! I think that what we’re offering is going to be one arrow in the quiver for artists. I think that free is going to be a really big thing on the Web, and there’s going to be a lot of different ways that music is free. There’s going to be free downloads through what we’re doing, and a lot of services offering free streaming. There’s going to be a lot of different options out there. It used to be that you recorded a record, pressed it into CDs, sold it and you collected checks every quarter. Now it’s all about ringtones and digital downloads and there are free components and videos. Basically you have to manage and put yourself out there in lots and lots of different channels. It’s going to be about touring and licensing, and there could be a free component, there might be a sales component. I think the artist is going to have to take advantage of all those channels and sort of cobble together different revenue streams. It’s a little bit more work, but you have to be savvy and work hard. Nothing’s guaranteed anymore. You have to excel and work harder on all these different aspects and pursue different avenues. I think we’re building one great channel for artists and labels to pursue. There’s so little downside to experimenting. We’re just experimenting. We’re trying to see if this will work. So far I’ve been really happy, but if it were really easy someone would have done it already. What we’re doing is saying, “Lets be niche, lets be more focused and start from scratch and build things and see where they go,” rather than trying to raise $30 million and roll the dice and getting everybody in the industry to agree, which I don’t think is ever going to happen. We’ve already put out music from about 215 artists in like 10 weeks, which I’m beyond ecstatic about. I think it’s really a huge number. That’s growing day-by-day. Sometimes we put out an album’s worth of music every single day. And we’ll put out like eight different artists’ music in a single day. Not every artist is huge, but we’re offering some music from Moby, which is our biggest name artist. It’s a big deal to get someone of that stature to participate in what we’re doing. It says a lot about the credibility of the site and the brand that we’ve managed to build. That’s the thing that makes me the happiest. It’s not just about the raw numbers of the audience, it’s also about the quality and the meaningfulness of the brand that we’re trying to build. When we’re talking to sponsors and advertisers, and new artists and labels, RCRD LBL has to be something that means something to people. We’re not trying to be all things to all people; we’re trying to take a stand and stand for the curatorial aspect to music.


** QB Content by Mandy Feingold

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Free MP3 Players and New Advertising Possibilities



In his blog DJ Alchemi, David Jenning put up a post entitled The Age of the Free MP3 Player. The gist of the post is that the cost of portable mp3 players is dropping so fast that it is becoming feasible to give them away and this is making new business and promotional opportunities possible.

Napster and Audible have offered free MP3 players with a subscription purchase for years. Other high end products, such as Bose noise cancelling headphones, have been offered with a free mp3 player.

Now the price of portable MP3 players is so low - less than $10 for a 1 GB player at wholesale - that it is feasible to offer them as a sales incentive with the purchase of much lower priced products.

How about a free MP3 player with the purchase of a pair of Nikes? Each time you synch up the player you get free music, content and ads from Nike.

Unlike the Pepsi/Amazon promotion, this one keeps giving even after the sale.

This is possible. The concept needs some tweaking but it will work.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Piracy is an Enemy to Ad-Supported Music

Pirated music is competition to ad-supported free downloaded music. As a participant in the ad-supported music industry (and a believer in the notion that a monopoly business is the best business) I want to defeat my industry's competitors. Thus, shutting down music pirates should be an ad-supported music industry priority, and the ad-supported music industry should work with the recorded music industry toward this end.

Something like the saying: The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Last month I wrote about U2 manager Paul McGuinness's speech at MIDEM. In that post I focused on how McGuiness missed the importance of TSL to the future of recorded music.

However, the main subject of the speech was McGuiness's assertion that ISPs should be responsible, and liable, for policing file sharing on their networks.

An edited video of the speech was posted on the MIDEM blog. I watched the speech and I think I agree with McGuinness that the ISPs should police pirating.




What convinced me that McGuinness was right is when I started to think of the problem in old world, non-digital terms.

What if file sharing networks were sending one billion pirated CDs each month through the mail? The mail fraud laws would require the Postal Service to stop delivery of the CDs and prosecute the mailers.

While I haven't done extensive research on the subject, I believe that there are numerous federal laws, based on interstate commerce jurisdiction, that would also make common carriers such as FedEx or UPS liable for shipping a billion pirated CDs each month.

If there is a role for legislation to help the recorded music industry combat piracy it is not in mandating a music tax on the ISPs, and in turn on their customers. It is to remove the exemption from liability granted to the ISPs in the Digital Millenium Copyright Act.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Jay-Z Forms Advertising Agency



The New York Times is reporting that Jay-Z is starting an advertising agency. From the article:

Jay-Z — real name, Shawn Carter — is joining forces with another African-American entrepreneur, Steve Stoute, to open Translation Advertising in New York, an agency that will help marketers reach multicultural consumers.

This is not an explicit advertising supported music event but it is further evidence of the strong connection between music and advertising.

As I have said before, the artists will lead the way to ad-supported music.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Ad-Supported Music in China



There is an interesting article on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today. The Journal is reporting that Google and Baidu are doing a JV in China to provide free music downloads.

There has been a lot of discussion about music piracy in China. Just this week the majors filed another lawsuit against Baidu based on the links it provides to pirated music.

The Journal article reports that "In China, industry analysts estimate that 90% of China's 162 million Web users access pirated music from their computers every day."

So what? The IFPI estimates that worldwide, pirated downloads outnumber legal downloads 20-1. In the digital world stealing music is so easy that China is no longer at the center of music piracy.

Much of the article deals with the Internet search rivalry between the two companies. Music searches account for a lot of Baidu's traffic:

A significant part of Baidu's success has been its music search service, which draws a sizable chunk of traffic -- at least 7% of its total -- to the site by facilitating easy access to free music. Baidu makes money by selling ads directly on its music pages. The free music also entices users to come back for other services, all of which helps the company sell advertisements.

Apparently the companies expect that the free MP3s will be paid for in the same way - by advertisements on the site and related up-sell purchases. This concerns me because it sounds like the Spiralfrog/Qtrax approach of using music as payment to users for viewing ads. Of course this model could work in China if the licensing deals worked out there are for considerably less than the ones in the States.

I'll end this post with the quote that ends the Journal article:

Over the past couple of years, Baidu has tried to make peace with record labels by offering to share revenue from advertising it sells on music streaming in exchange for the right to advertise alongside the streaming songs. Mr. Li (Baidu CEO) argues that such a model represents the future of digital music in China. "Digital music will be a large market, especially in China, and it's going to be an advertising-supported business," he says.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Tuesday Tidbits


So What if Our Business is Disappearing - This post from Digital Music News proves to me that the majors must go out of business or have a near death experience before the recorded music industry can fix itself:
Despite a sinking stock and plummeting sales, top executives at Warner Music Group are still enjoying nosebleed compensation packages. Just recently, publicly-available SEC documents detailed an annual package of $3.4 million for company chief executive Edgar Bronfman, Jr. Bronfman opted against a bonus package in 2007, a decision prompted by major album sales declines. But others gladly accepted handsome bonuses, including chief executive of US Recorded Music Lyor Cohen, who pulled a $4.6 million total payday. Michael D. Fleischer, chief financial officer, banked $3.2 million, while executive vice president Alex Zubillaga pocketed $3.05 million. Warner/Chappell Music chief executive David H. Johnson landed $1.45 million. For the fiscal year ending September 30th, Warner Music reported losses of $21 million.

Will Music Radio Vanish Too? - Mark Ramsey has a great post on his Hear 2.0 blog arguing that music radio cannot compete with digital music and that it will slowly go away:

What it all adds up to is the gradual near-obsolescence of music radio, not in a blink, but by a slow and persistent siphoning of audience and attention and interest and advertisers. This process will take years to happen.

We7 Gets 2 Million Downloads - Good news for advertising supported downloads. From their press release:

"This is brilliant, it took us six months to download the first million tracks and only six weeks to download the next million tracks. We're all hugely excited about further growth ahead".

AdAge Article - I was quoted a few times in this AdAge article last week. Read it for my pearls of wisdom.

Monday, February 04, 2008

Microsoft/Yahoo! - Effect on Ad-Supported Music?



At this point it is no longer news that Microsoft launched a hostile bid for Yahoo! There is no shortage of analysis of the proposed combination.

How would the merged company affect digital music, especially advertising supported music? In order to consider this question properly we need to look at it in light of a couple other recent announcements.

  • Yahoo is shutting down its subscription music service. It is transferring Yahoo Music Unlimited subscribers to RealNetworks' Rhapsody service. Yahoo will continue to run its ad-supported streaming services.

  • In December Real fired 100 of its 1,800 employees. Last week Real layed off 12 people in the Rhapsody division. Real says these lay offs were the result of redundancies from the merger with the URGE music service last year.

So I think that the first conclusion that we can draw is that employment at the major digital music companies is shrinking and if Microsoft and Yahoo get together there will be further "redundancies" in the music areas - mostly at Yahoo I would guess.

It may be obvious to state that the combination will have little effect on subscription services. Yahoo just got rid of theirs. Microsoft has the Zune Pass subscription service, which I have to believe has very few subscribers, but which MS has to continue to support and differentiate the Zune.

In general I think the merger would be good for the digital music marketplace. Currently there are just too many players. Too many download stores, too many streaming services, etc. A shakeout is inevitable and the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo would be a step in this direction.

I also believe that the combination would be great for advertising supported music. This deal is fundamentally about advertising. Sure, Microsoft is thinking Internet advertising but momentum for ad-supported music is growing at both companies. Yahoo shed its paid music services to focus on ad-supported services and Microsoft is the sleeping giant of advertising supported music.

As their move on Yahoo shows, the sleeping giant eventually wakes up and when it does it moves in a big way.

Friday, February 01, 2008

3 Cohens on Ad-Supported Music

This week I came across three quotes on advertising supported music, each by a different person with the last name Cohen (one of them being me), and I couldn't pass up doing this post.

As far as I know we are not related but if we trace back to the old country, who knows. Maybe the debate around ad-supported music started among some Talmud students in a shtetl in Poland...





Ted Cohen, TAG Strategic: "The pressure is totally toward free."






Scott Cohen, Founder and CEO of The Orchard: Cohen believes that although there's "nothing wrong with ad-supported music" it simply won't provide enough money "to sustain the music business." (Sorry Landsman, you are wrong on this one. You must be thinking about models based on low CPM web advertising models.)




Marc Cohen, Ad-Supported Music Central: "Don't Sell The Music - Sell The Time Spent Listening to The Music." (So many good quotes from me but I had to choose just one.)