Thursday, January 31, 2008

U2 Manager's Speech at MIDEM

Paul McGuiness, the manager for U2, made a speech at MIDEM that sent the music blogoshpere into a tizzy.

The crux of the speech is that technologists don't value music or the artists that make music and that ISPs should bear responsibility for shutting off illegal downloaders. I was surprised to agree with a lot of what McGuiness said.

However, I want to point out a couple of glaring oversights by McGuiness, which I am afraid, indicate that he lacks the insights that are necessary to save recorded music.

So what has gone wrong with the recorded music business?

More people are listening to music than ever before through many more media than ever before. Part of the problem is that the record companies, through lack of foresight and poor planning, allowed an entire collection of digital industries to arise that enabled the consumer to steal with impunity the very recorded music that had previously been paid for.


Right at the beginning of his speech McGuiness identifies the single most important phenomenon to the future of recorded music - that TSL is higher than ever. He then devotes the rest of the speech to talking about piracy. He never directly addresses what should logically follow a mention of TSL - how to monetize it.

"Access" is what people will be paying for in the future, not the "ownership" of digital copies of pieces of music.


Alas, this statement reveals that McGuiness ultimately cannot shake the thinking of a music industry veteran. In the future, as in the present, people will not be paying for music.

McGuiness did, however, make one really good point about advertising supported music:

There is some excitement about advertising-funded deals. But the record companies must gain our trust to share fairly the revenues they will gain from advertising. Historically they have not been good at transparency.


With albums and downloads, there is independent verification of sales numbers, so artists don't have to trust the labels. Measurement of ad exposure is critical to the success of advertising supported music but I have always looked at measurement from the advertiser's perspective. I guess it will be important to the artist too.

You can read the entire speech at billboard.biz and you should.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Its Really Not About Advertising After All - My Bad


I have written more than two hundred and fifty posts for this blog. Almost all of the posts have been about how and why to use advertising to pay for recorded music.

In spite of all that ink, I have to admit that the key to making money from recorded music going forward, is not advertising. The key is to monetize the time people spend listening to recorded music.

The focus on TSL has been a theme of the blog and it is even our motto. Yet, with all the recent writing on ad-supported music (precipated by the Qtrax fiasco) I think now is good a good time to re-examine our first principle of TSL.

Here is some data:

Teenagers spend the most time listening to recorded music.


People 14-27 spend a lot of time listening to recorded music.

Even people as old as 40 spend considerable time listening to recorded music.


Now lets make the connection to advertising - I can think of no better way to monetize TSL with recorded music than by selling advertising. Monetizing time spent with media by integrating and selling advertising is what made TV, radio, and even the Internet into industries with revenues measured in the tens of billions of dollars. Why couldn't it do the same for recorded music

As the charts above show, people spend more time with recorded music than with most other media. Look at the revenue earned by the major ad-supported media and I think you will agree that locked in the aggregate TSL to recorded music is more money than the recorded music industry has ever seen.

If you know of a better way than advertising to monetize recorded music TSL, let me know and I will change the name and focus of this blog.

Tuesday Tantalizing Tidbits

The MIDEM and MidemNet conferences are currently on in Cannes. There is a lot happening there around ad-supported music.

paidContent has great coverage of the conferences. Here are some relevant posts:

@ MidemNet: Can Ad-Supported Music Pay Its Way?

@ MidemNet: Sony BMG Sees ‘09 Digital Tipping Point; Backs Unlimited Music-As-Service

@ MidemNet: Will Music Break Free, Or Is Free Music Broken?

“The pressure is totally toward free,” said Ted Cohen

@ Midem: SpiralFrog Exec Downplays Losses As Standard Start-Up Mode

@ Midem: Interview: Steve Purdham, CEO, We7: Adding Up The Audio Ads

From coolfer:

Vivendi CEOat MIDEM: Reaffirms Belief in the CD, Talks of Stance on DRM, Says Industry Pessimism Is Overdone

Monday, January 28, 2008

Qtrax, Where Art Thou?



At the MidemNet conference, which took place over the weekend in Cannes, Qtrax announced that it would launch at midnight January 28 with these words by CEO Allan Klepfisz: "This will profoundly change music". I don't think so. I have been trying to download the app this morning and it is still not available.

Qtrax also announced that they had agreements in place with all four majors. Of these four, three now say there are no agreements.

Qtrax has delayed their launch numerous times over the last couple of years. With this fiasco I think we can declare Qtrax dead, or if it ever launches, doomed. Clearly their management does not have the skill required to swim in the treacherous water of ad-supported music (even though you would have thought they would be excellent swimmers since they come from Australia. Go figure.)

Friday, January 25, 2008

Time is Money


OK, here is what lit my fire today.


The IFPI just released their Digital Music Report 2008. The report opens with this sentence: "A revolution is happening in the way that consumers obtain and pay for digital music..."


From this sentence I should have known that the report would be written with the blinders of a music insider. The sentence should have read: A revolution is happening in the way that consumers obtain but don't pay for digital music...


I got beyond that sentence and decided to see if the report had anything to say about time spent listening to recorded music. Here is the closest I found:

Reading this left me thunderstruck. Consumers' time is also a valuable asset? Are you kidding? Consumers' time is the most valuable digital music asset, yet the writers of this report treat it as an afterthought.

The imeems and amazonmp3s and other hoped for saviors of the recorded music industry are just more fingers in a hopelessly riddled dike. The industry will not be saved by these creations of modern technology. Rather the answer to the industry's woes lies in something Benjamin Franklin taught more than two centuries ago:

Time is Money.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Music Sales Fall, CBS and Yahoo Explore Ad-Support


Some very interesting announcements in the last 24 hours.

First, the IFPI announced that in 2007 global music sales fell by 10% and digital sales, which tripled in 2005 and almost doubled in 2006, grew by only 40%. Global digital music sales were $2.9 billion and at this declining growth rate probably won't replace even a quarter of lost CD sales.

Second, last.fm announced that it was entering the ad-supported music space and rumor has it that Yahoo will also. There is a lot of coverage of this move by last.fm. Basically, in addition to its Internet radio service. last.fm will enable users to select and listen to any track up to three times. This service will be supported by advertising, which I believe will be typical website ads.

Regarding Yahoo, here is what the AP is reporting: "Yahoo Inc., is in early discussions with major record labels over offering unprotected MP3s either for sale or for free as part of an ad-supported service, two record company executives familiar with the talks said Wednesday." The real question is whether or not Yahoo will launch an ad-supported download service.

As many bloggers have commented, there is nothing new about what last.fm is offering and Yahoo may also offer just more of the same. What is new is that CBS and Yahoo would be the biggest companies to move into ad-supported digital music.

According to Quincy Smith, president of CBS Interactive big media companies may be the key to making ad-supported music a success. "Only media can bring those kinds of sponsorship relationships," he said in an interview with CNET News.com.

I don't agree with Smith that only big media companies can make ad-supported music a success but their participation sure won't hurt.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

ioda's Arnold on Licensing New Music Models


Last week I put up a post about an e-mail written by the CEO of ioda, Kevin Arnold, asking its artists and labels not to cut independent deals with immeem or lala.

I closed the post by saying that Arnold was acting like a big label executive when he said in the e-mail that recipients should contact client relations with questions rather than contacting him directly.

In response to the post, Arnold e-mailed me to say that he was "pretty accessible" and inviting me to get in touch with him if I ever needed to.

I figured that I would take advantage of that opportunity to ask him a few questions about his approach to advertising supported music.

Here is what I asked:

I wonder if you would answer some questions for me about this part of your
letter:

"They are noteworthy because both allow consumers to stream unlimited amounts of music for free. imeem proposes to pay out a percentage of advertising revenue from its site, but will not thus far commit to a base per-stream floor rate, which is common in the industry for this type of use, and in contrast to the deals many of the majors received according to many media reports (see WSJ article dated Dec 10, 2007 for details). Under this structure, the imeem royalty rate could end up lower than the compulsory DMCA rate paid by non-interactive internet radio webcasters (just $0.0014 per performance), far below the standard rates paid for full-song on-demand streaming in services like Rhapsody and Napster."

Why is what is common in the industry or the DMCA rate relevant? Why should imeem guarantee a base rate? Why aren’t you comfortable with a percentage of ad revenue and letting the market determine how much revenue is generated?

Here is Kevin Arnold's response:
It’s relevant because it gives us a benchmark by which we and our labels can evaluate new opportunities. How do you know how much you are willing to pay for a hotel room or another common good unless you have some experience with what it should cost you?

The same comment goes for your second question: because it helps us be comfortable with the licensing terms.

A better question from the perspective of our rightsholders would be, Why should we we license without a base rate, or outside the zone of terms already presented to us in the market by other services?

I don’t know if these new models will work, or what the right formula is for success. We’re willing to try some of them out and share in some risk of experimentation, but why should our rightsholders take the brunt of the gamble to answer the question with a particular service, when there are other people out there in the market willing to take the risk, as there have been for years?

We’re fine with revenue models based on a share of ad revenue, and we’ve licensed them in the past. But there is a floor below which we and the bulk of our rightsholders are not comfortable going, based on various floors established in the marketplace by existing businesses.

Why should we allow any new business that comes along have an open slate to define these rates? What if the business just isn’t good at doing what it’s model depends on, like selling ads and monetizing music? The rates a business is willing to offer are a testament to how confident they are executing on their model. The first challenge is creating a model that works for everyone involved in it.

I appreciate that Kevin responded to my questions, but I am disappointed by his answers. He seems to be focused on grabbing the biggest slice of a shrinking pie for his rightsholders. I think ioda would best serve its constituents by focusing on growing the pie.

In regard to ad-supported music services I believe that artists are entitled to only a share of the advertising revenues their music generates. By working together to grow the revenues and negotiating the share, everyone benefits and is fairly compensated.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Tuesday Tantalizing Tidbits



More From Pali Research: Richard Greenfield's comment on Hands staff memo from the misstrade blog: "Pali Capital notes Guy Hands’ internal staff memo highlights that: EMI currently has 14,425 artists on its roster. EMI tried to break 1,300 artists globally in 2007. Only 3% of the 14,425 artists are currently profitable. “The roster is too large and the number of album releases are too many, to apply proper focus or expertise.” “Sadly, between 1,500 and 2,000 jobs will have to go.” The one issue Hands’ memo does not really address is do artists really even need labels as we move into a digital age, where free ad-supported music is the only model we can envision surviving?" (emphasis mine)

The Wall Street Journal has an article about EMI in today's edition.

We7 Funding: We7 raised about $6 million from co-founder Peter Gabriel, Spark Ventures and Eden Ventures. Adequate funding is necessary for, but no indication of, market success. I hope We7 does not use this money to pay advances or guarantees to labels. In my view the money is best used just to pay operating expenses and to keep the company in business until all players in the market (consumers, labels and intermediaries) are serious about advertising supported music.

Music Piracy Solved a Century Ago: The Story on NPR is a great show. Last week they did a segment called Lost Sounds. A guy named Tim Brooks talked about his collection of recordings made in the 1890's. Did you know that there was no way to duplicate recordings at that time? Only one recording could be made at a time so artists had to perform each time a recording was made.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Tweens are Ideal Ad-Supported Music Demo

Advertising Age posted an article today entitled Little Ears Are Big Bucks for Music Players. As the chart from the article shows, a lot of kids under 12 own and use MP3 players:

I think this is an ideal market for advertising supported music. This demographic has little money to buy music and is open to advertising.

In fact, this demographic might be the ideal launching pad for ad-supported music and Disney might be the ideal company to do it.

Friday, January 18, 2008

More On Mobile Music


Mobile carriers are looking at music as an important piece of their strategy to increase data revenues. However, as the chart below shows, price is the major obstacle to more data usage.
This is tied directly to OTA downloading of music to cellphones - most people don't and I believe that cost is a major factor.

The music strategy of carriers is tied to OTA downloading. They can make money from music only on the data charges. Unless data charges come way down, people won't download OTA.

Of course as data charges come down usage will have to go way up to meet revenue projections.

Free ad-supported music downloads DRM'd to a phone offers carriers a way to make money from music even when tracks are sideloaded.


Carriers need to understand that the most money is made from content and applications at the handset not by delivery to the handset.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Acting Like a Major, Ioda Scolds imeem and lala Over Ad Rates

Earlier this week, Kevin Arnold, the founder of digital music distributor ioda, sent an e-mail to the indy labels that have contracts with his firm. hypebot has posted a copy of the e-mail.

In the e-mail Arnold implores his indy labels not to cut independent licensing deals with imeem or lala. Here is the relevant excerpt:

Recently, a number of new music services with new approaches and business models have been in the headlines, and we want to update you on the status of our discussions with them. imeem, a fast-growing social network built around music, and lala, which started as a CD-swapping service, are at the forefront of this
group.

They are noteworthy because both allow consumers to stream unlimited amounts of music for free. imeem proposes to pay out a percentage of advertising revenue from its site, but will not thus far commit to a base per-stream floor rate, which is common in the industry for this type of use, and in contrast to the deals many of the majors received according to many media reports (see WSJ article dated Dec 10, 2007 for details). Under this structure, the imeem royalty rate could end up lower than the compulsory DMCA rate paid by non-interactive internet radio webcasters (just $0.0014 per performance), far below the standard rates paid for full-song on-demand streaming in services like Rhapsody and Napster.

Lala's intention is to stream full songs for free on its' site in the hope that these streams will result in sales of downloads and CDs. They have proposed a complex payment structure for these streams that includes caps on streaming payments which would result in rates uncomfortably below the levels paid by other streaming services. It remains to be seen the degree to which free streams will result in sales, and we'd like to see more protection in the event that a user streams content, but doesn't go on to make a purchase.

IODA has been in discussions with these two services for the majority of 2007 with the goal of structuring economically equitable and sensible agreements. We continue to work on these deals, but we have not as yet been able to come to terms and present you with what we consider to be fair deals that provide fair compensation for your content.


Arnold's position is much more like that of the Big 4 rather than that of an upstart digital music company. He wants a guaranteed payment from ad-supported digital music services. He should understand that the ad rates and revenues are completely market driven and it is impossible at this early stage in the industry for an ad-supported music service to make any minimum guarantees. If ioda supplies good product that is delivered in a way people want, ioda and its labels and artists will be well compensated.

Perhaps the most troubling indication of Big 4 think is the last line of Arnold's message:
If you have any questions about the above, please contact Client Relations at cr@iodalliance.com

In other words, I am an important executive - don't bother me.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Amazon/Pepsi Promotion Misses Opportunity


The Amazon/Pepsi 1 billion download Super Bowl promotion has been confirmed.

Partnering with Pepsi on this promotion is a coup for Amazon and a dis to Apple, especially since they worked with Pepsi several years ago on a similar, but smaller, promotion. This comes at a time when Peter Kafka at Silicon Alley Insider says that iTunes sales are flat. No question amazonmp3 is gaining traction at Apple's expense (see my post at hypebot on why amazonmp3 won't grow the digital download market.)

My real question about this promotion, though, is why Pepsi isn't attaching a We7 style audio ad to the promotional tracks. Just a simple "Brought to you by Pepsi" would reinforce the brand association well beyond the few seconds it takes to download the track.

I wonder if Pepsi or Amazon talked to We7? For me, this kind of promotion is the ideal use of the We7 technology.

If there are any readers out there from We7, can you enlighten us?

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Tuesday Tantalizing Tidbits


A Couple of Numbers

Total units of recorded music (CD, download, video, etc.) sold in 2007: 1.4 billion.

Total units of recorded music traded on P2P networks every month: 1.1 billion

Ya' think this shows that people don't want to pay for their music?

EMI - The cuts and changes at EMI are all over the news today. EMI is pushing cost savings, a greater focus on A&R and 360 deals. However, I didn't see any mention of addressing what the market is demanding - free music. See above.

The Importance of DRM - Jupiter analyst Mark Mulligan posts some insight into the important role of DRM: "The great irony though is that a whole new era is opening up for DRM. With DRM poised to disappear from premium download stores it can play a strong differentiation role for ad-supported and subsidized services." Agreed.

Mark has another very interesting insight in this post: "...with DRM dropping from premium stores, and Apple currently absent from ad-supported, the digital music codec landscape could easily become: Premium - MP3/AAC, Ad-supported/subsidized - WMA. So Microsoft becomes the codec of choice for free." I have said before that Microsoft is in the ideal position to dominate advertising supported downloaded music.

Led Zeppelin- The purists don't like it but this Verizon commercial says it all about the power of music and advertising. It also says something about the power of music and cellphones. Enjoy.

video

Monday, January 14, 2008

Would You Watch the OfficeMax?


Mark Ramsey has another post worth reading on his Hear 2.0 blog.

Mark analyzes an e-marketer column on advertising trends and spending in terms of what they mean for terrestrial radio.

However, I am more interested in Geoff Ramsey's assertions in the last part of his e-marketer column about what advertising will look like in the future:

But it is the third transformation that will have the greatest effect since it transcends the Internet and affects all media.

For decades, the ad industry was built on the interruption-disruption model. Consumers understood that if they wanted to experience free content—in the form of television shows, music on the radio and magazine articles—they would have to put up with ads, most of which were perceived as irrelevant, boring, annoying or all three. In this standard construct, ads were seen as a “necessary evil” to support the content consumers really wanted to see.

But the interruption-disruption model is dying out, thanks to shifting consumer trends. Consumers are increasingly in control of their media content and can easily eradicate ads they don’t want to see. They also have less trust in advertisers and their messages. Further, consumers are creating their own content with the help of blogs, social networks, wikis and other digital-communication platforms.

As a result, advertisers and their agencies who want to engage with today’s consumers will have to start turning their ads into content. Ultimately, they will need to be able to produce content that is so compelling, relevant and entertaining that consumers will seek it out and want to share it with others.

The new ad model is about creating great content and finding clever ways to embed it in the fabric of communities and content platforms where consumers are hanging out and actively participating.

I fundamentally disagree with the notion advertisers will have to start turning their ads into content in order to get consumer attention.

The most profound impact of digital technology has been to give people more content choices. Content competition means that great, compelling content is more important than ever. In this regard I agree with Sumner Redstone that: "In the digital domain content still rules."

Ads can be made into content but they will never make great content. Call me crazy, but I think people would rather watch or hear great content for free, which is occasionally interrupted by ads, than free mediocre content that is an ad.

Audiences will turn off the ad/content just as they turn off ads. Some ad/content will work, but it will never replace plain old ads as the bread and butter of advertising.

I believe that people understand and accept the value proposition of free content supported by - and interrupted by - advertising. The challenge is to do advertising - not content - better.

Friday, January 11, 2008

History of Recorded Music Formats


Instead of authoring my own post today, again I am going to re-print what I think is a great article.

This one is from Mark Ramsey who writes the hear 2.0 blog.



Ah, how things change.

I have spent a lot of time studying the pictures in this post. The data illustrated here is not new, of course. We all know music sales are going to Hell in a proverbial handbasket.

But when you chart the data as National Geographic has done so here (from their December issue), some new insights arise which have implications for radio as well as the music business.

These charts, especially the second one, is incredibly illuminating for several reasons:


1. It shows the transitional nature of all - ALL - recorded technology that distributes music to consumers. That is, one technology shrinks as another expands, ad infinitum. Radio, too, is a technology, a very well established and popular one. The erosion we're currently seeing in radio usage - especially among the young - is not a hiccup. It is part of a long-term trend we are only beginning to experience. The more we face competitive alternatives which substitute for radio's core benefits, the more this trend will accelerate.

2. This chart obviously excludes music distributed for free - a.k.a. "illegally." One can assume that the steady decline of CD sales is matched - and exceeded - by a stunning rise in off-the-chart downloads. That is, demand doesn't go away, it just moves to something else. Being in the right place at the right time with the right revenue model is the key.

3. This chart shows the amount of time it generally takes for transformation to occur. For example, it took 16 years for CD sales to peak. If it takes as long for CD's to disappear, then by 2015 the last CD will be sold. Radio's erosion - and the revenue problems that result in part from this - is not going to stop. We need a model and a strategy that anticipates and exploits the future, not a head-in-the-sand public relations gimmick. We need to surf the trends, not fight them.

4. This chart shows the absurdity of relating the present state of the radio (yes, radio) industry to any time in its ancient history. For example, the birth of FM back in the late 60's to 70's lived in a technological environment which this chart clearly shows has completely disappeared. It's like comparing the Jimmy Kimmel show to the Dean Martin Roast. Let's compare apples to apples.

5. This chart shows that older technologies yield to newer technologies if the benefits those newer technologies provide substitute for and beat the ones they replace. CD's are unambiguously better than tapes - they provide similar benefits, but do a better job of what they do. If I can get music in my car delivered in a radio-like experience from Microsoft or Slacker or whomever - and if it has broad enough distribution - then my radio listening will shift - assuming it's music I'm looking for (and it may not be).

6. Growth and decline in this chart are "steady" in all cases, not "explosive." It may be strongly steady, but it's steady. Thus the best reflection of future momentum for any new technology in this space is the momentum among its early adopters. Not the crazy gadget freaks, but the next wave of users, the early adopters. So what does this mean for radio? Well, if the momentum for a new technology, say, HD radio, is slow at the onset it is not likely to accelerate with time. What you see is what you'll get. Look at this chart and all the evidence is right there.

7. It is clear that the horse has left the barn on tangible media for the music industry and all things digital are the immediate future. That means it's inevitable that the music industry will make up the shortfall in music sales with licensing (including licensing revenue from radio) and (drumroll, please) advertising.

And a world of music for free with advertising is functionally identical to music-oriented radio. That is, the competition is going to get much tougher, folks.

Enjoy these charts. There's a lot to learn hidden in those numbers.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

A Primer on Paying For Content

Consultant Shelly Palmer writes about new media at his Media 3.0 website. Last month Joe Mandese at MediaPost Publications wrote a column about Shelly's views on free content.

What Shelly has to say is relevant to the advertising supported downloaded music discussion. I am reprinting Joe Mandese's column here annotated with my comments:

In the End Is freedom just another word for nothing left to lose?
by Joe Mandese

It's been said, there's no free lunch. But how many people know where that phrase originates from? It comes from a time when bars and taverns would put out sumptuous free lunches to entice the working crowd in for a midday pint or two. The practice, not unlike the more contemporary "happy hour," appeared to give something away for free, but it was really just an early example of grassroots promotional marketing.

Nowadays, the term "no free lunch" is used broadly to describe any kind of value exchange where someone appears to be getting something for free, but - knowingly or unknowingly - pays an implicit price. The reality is there is also no such thing as free media. It may seem free to a user, but somewhere, somehow, someone is funding the cost of producing and disseminating it.

"There are only three ways to pay for media," consultant and author Shelly Palmer declared last year while moderating a discussion on the subject at the OMMA Hollywood conference in Los Angeles. "I pay, you pay, or someone else pays." The pronoun in Palmer's model depends on who the speaker is, but assuming it comes from the point of view of a media content owner, the economics work thusly.

>> I pay: The media content owner eats the cost of producing and/or distributing content for free, because doing so generates other economic benefits (This approach cannot scale.)
>> You pay: The consumer pays directly for the cost of media content either via subscription services or à la carte purchases
>> Someone else pays: Typically, sponsors or advertisers who want to associate their brand or brand message with media content provided free to the consumer

"No matter what economic formula you use, media content comes with a price," says Palmer, "And ultimately, it comes down to one of those three models, or some hybrid version of them." (Magazines are the best example of a hybrid approach. Without advertising subscription rates would be much higher.) As such, Palmer says the notion of free media isn't really all that new. Obviously, the commercial media marketplace has long provided content for free, or been significantly subsidized by advertising.

But even seemingly free forms of media content, such as public broadcasting, comes with a price. Public television, for example, exploits at least two of the models. Consumers pay directly by making contributions to public broadcasters. Someone else pays - both government tax dollars and corporate underwriters - to provide content to the public.

Palmer scoffs at the notion that Radiohead's "pay-what-you-want" album sales model is at all a breakthrough. While a third of consumers who downloaded the band's latest album paid something for it, the real point of the model was to get the band's music heard to generate residual sales in the form of concerts and merchandising.

"It's really the Jerry Garcia model," says Palmer, referring to the late lead guitarist of the Grateful Dead, who encouraged deadheads to record the band's live performances and distribute and share the recording for free, because it would generate a broader marketplace for the band's music and concert tours. (See my post: The Fallacy of the Concert Savior.)

As far as media content formats go, the music industry has been the canary in the coal mine of free media models. The incursion of illegal and illicit peer-to-peer file sharing networks has essentially killed the "you pay" model and has sent record label executives in search of new economics. One model that seems to be working is the "someone else pays" version.

Free, ad-supported music download sites like SpiralFrog are popping up to offer an economic solution in which everyone seems to win. Music labels and performing artists get paid by a cut of advertising revenues. Advertisers get valuable advertising impressions and goodwill from consumers. Consumers get free music and clean consciences.

Ultimately, the "someone else pays" model works because consumer attention has an intrinsic economic value for advertisers, sponsors and corporate underwriters. (This is the fundamental point underlying ad-supported downloaded music and is the inspiration for our motto: Don't Sell the Music; Sell the Time Spent Listening to the Music.)

In its extreme, some developers have even tried paying consumers directly or indirectly for their attention. During the late 1990s, PeoplePC gave personal computers away to consumers who agreed to look at advertising on their desktops, while NetZero gave them free Internet access in exchange for advertising exposure. The most aggressive example of the pay-for-attention model, perhaps, was Nat Goldhaber's Cybergold, a company that was founded on the premise that it would pay consumers cash for their attention to advertising messages. (This is what SpiralFrog and RCRD LBL are doing. They are paying you with downloads for spending time on the site.) None of the pay-for-attention models tried so far have been successful, but companies continue to explore new variations on old themes. (These models haven't been successful because they separate the content from the advertising. This approach cannot work and history indicates that SpiralFrog and RCRD LBL will fail.)

"Some people think free is not a model, but it is a perfectly valid one," says Palmer, who circulates his own newsletter and video series to 50,000 subscribers daily - all for free. "All the things that come with that notoriety are the spoils of the cost," he says, noting that the provision of free media content has boosted sales of his book, as well as his demand and fees as a speaker and a consultant. Invite him out for happy hour and maybe he'll tell you all about it.

I couldn't have said it better myself.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Subscription Music Services - Who Ya Gonna Believe



It is being reported that Yahoo is trying to sell its music subscription service. Apparently the service is marginally profitable and Yahoo wants to focus on its ad-supported music services (Yahoo!).

The number of subscription music services is falling. Rhapsody merged with URGE and Napster is apparently up for sale also. This is not surprising to me. As I have said before, subscription music services are for the rich.

Now I get a press release for a report out from Juniper Research with this headline: Mobile Music Revenues to Approach $18 Billion by 2012, Fueled by Demand for Subscription Based Services, According to Juniper Research.

Why will subscription music services work on cell phones when they are failing on personal computers? According to report author Dr Windsor Holden, "Music rental services such as those offered by Omnifone are incredibly 'sticky', in that once consumers have taken the time and effort to build up an extensive playlist, they will be increasingly reluctant to unsubscribe from that service and from the operator, thereby providing a significant boost to ARPU levels."

Gimme a break. Do people actually pay for this kind of analysis?

The natural music solution for cellular phones is advertising supported downloads.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Tuesday Tantalizing Tidbits

Spiralfrog Gets Some New Money - Late last month Spiralfrog arranged to borrow $2 million. Spiralfrog has sold its soul to raise about $15 million. Although it is not public, its investors/lenders are requiring Spiralfrog to report like a public company. This gives us great information but must be a real burden to the company. Anyhow, the bottom line is that Spiralfrog is burning cash and is desperate to raise more.


Influential Stock Analyst Calls for Ad-Supported Music - From Red Herring: "The major labels must embrace an ad-supported model for downloadable music—albeit we sense they have no desire to do this,' Pali Research analyst Rich Greenfield wrote Friday in a report."

An Interesting Proposal - Ian Rogers is a music VP at Yahoo and writes the FISTFULAYEN blog. He posted the slides from a presentation he recently delivered at a music conference. Most of the slides are too full of insider jargon and mumbo-jumbo for me to care about putting out the effort to decipher them. However, buried inside is the kernel of a really great idea, which Rogers describes: "We need media to be a first-class object in HTML...We need ways to describe collections of media objects (playlists)." I like this because it could also support advertising.



CES - I am not at CES, but I haven't heard any news out of there that will make any meaningful difference to the recorded music industry. Except, of course, the Taser/MP3 player. (Video courtesy of gizmodo.)

video

Monday, January 07, 2008

Biggest Ad-Supported Music Developments in 2007


Happy New Year everybody.

It has been a couple of weeks since my last post. I love doing the blog but I also enjoyed the break. The kids are back in school today so I am back at the computer.

I thought I would start the new year with a quick analysis of what I believe were the three biggest developments in advertising supported downloaded music during 2007:
  • Ad-Supported Music Sites - In 2007 we saw the launch of Spiralfrog, imeem, We7 and several other ad-supported music sites. None of these sites are the best implementation of ad-supported downloaded or streaming music, but they are very serious efforts. They are the pioneers. Most will catch arrows in the back, but the successful ad-supported recorded music companies will be built on their shoulders.

  • Continued Slide in CD Sales- Here is how an article in PC World describes it: "Sales of physical and digital albums tumbled to 500.5 million units...It marked the lowest tally and the steepest decline since Nielsen began publishing estimates based on point-of-sales data in 1993, a spokeswoman said." Without a doubt, the evaporation of revenues is the strongest force pushing the recorded music industry toward advertising support.

  • Elimination of DRM - Late last year Amazon launched amazonmp3, their DRM-free music store, which has already shown itself to be a strong iTunes competitor. Last week (technically 2008) Sony became the last of the majors to offer DRM-free music on amazonmp3.com. Some believe that DRM has been holding back digital music sales. Regular readers of this blog will know that I believe DRM is irrelevant. The reason I believe that the elimination of DRM is significant, is because it removes the last myth explaining the weakness of paid downloads versus pirated downloads. With DRM gone, the industry must face the reality that consumers just don't want to pay for all of their recorded music.
So, the events of 2007 give advertising supported downloaded music good field position. Still, the labels control the ball. Let's see what plays they call in 2008 (metaphor in honor of the BCS title game tonight).